Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in Iran from the CMIP6 Ensemble

Scientists who want to know future climate can use multimodel ensemble (MME) methods that combine projections from individual simulation models. To predict the changes of extreme rainfall in Iran, we examined observations and 24 models Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over Middle East. We applied generalized value (GEV) distribution series annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP1) data obtained both observations. also employed multivariate bias-correction under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios (namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). used a model averaging method takes performance independence into account, which is called PI-weighting. Return levels for 20 50 years, as well return periods AMP1 relative reference years (1971–2014), were estimated periods. These are period 1 (2021–2050), 2 (2046–2075), 3 (2071–2100). From this study, Iran increases 20-year level spatial median past year 2100 will be approximately 15.6% 23.2% 28.7% SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. realized 1-in-20 (or 1-in-50 year) observed likely become 1-in-12 (1-in-26) year, 1-in-10 (1-in-22) 1-in-9 (1-in-20) event by project heavy more prominent western southwestern parts Iran.